Comments on: Previous predictions of solar cycle 24

By: Richard

Richard — Mon, 03 Dec 2007 18:48:03 +0000

I would think one of these scenarios more likely:
1) Earth’s geomagnetic activity fluctuates enough to allow correlations to be found between the two graphs, with these two observations: 1A) data shopping; choosing geomagnetic peaks which roughly match the solar activity peaks using the disired displacement. 1B) ignoring troughs in the geomagnetic graph, which line up better with the solar activity peaks. After all the sun’s not that far away…why should years for Old Sol to affect the Earth’s…oh, I forgot, the influence is Earth - Sol…

2) Assuming the influence might possibly be big Sol influencing smaller Earth, perhaps the arrows on the graph would be better placed with the first arrow’s tail at the peak of Solar Cycle 11 and the arrow’s head at Geomagnetic peak at ~1870, and continuing demonstrating how each Solar Peak is followed by a Geomagnetic Peak.

By: Dr. Francis T. Manns

Dr. Francis T. Manns — Sun, 02 Dec 2007 11:17:14 +0000

It’s more subtle than that. It’s the collective effect over many cycles, the peak freqency, that matters. Visit the Danish National Space Center web site. There you will see evidence that there is a strong correlation between solar activity and global climate. High solar activity shields earth from cosmic radiation; a quiet sun does not shield earth. Cosmic radiation is very efficient at producing low level cloud. The correlation between sunspot peak frequency and warming and cooling is 95% (Friis-Christensen, and Lassen, 1991; Science). Corrrelation is not causation; that pattern was destroyed by the Pinatubo eruption, but the Danes have actual experimental support (Svensmark, et al, 2006) for the solar hypothesis of climate change. Read “The Chilling Stars” for a chilling story.

By: John A

John A — Sun, 20 May 2007 12:40:06 +0000

Mike,

My understanding is that yes, a strong solar wind warms the Earth, but the major factor would appear to be the strengthening of the solar magnetic field, which deflects the cosmic rays that appear to have a measureable effect on the formation of clouds, especially in the lower atmosphere.

Less cloudiness -> lower albedo -> warming.

So its a double whammy if you like.

By: Solar Science » NASA: Your guess is as good as ours

Solar Science » NASA: Your guess is as good as ours — Sun, 20 May 2007 12:33:29 +0000

[…] brings us to an interesting situation. After what one astrophysicist communicated to me seemed a lot like numerology in a prediction by NASA, and after statements about the strength of Solar Cycle 24 by the same group, we now have a […]

By: Mike Neibel

Mike Neibel — Sat, 19 May 2007 16:16:36 +0000

When a “sudden gust of solar wind” hits the earth, doesn’t it bring more IR radiation (heat) with it? Since solar cycle 24 is supposed to be intense and peak around 2011, doesn’t that mean that the Earth will warm even more than now?

This non-academic wants to know.

By: Solar Science » NASA predicts weak Solar Cycle 25

Solar Science » NASA predicts weak Solar Cycle 25 — Wed, 28 Mar 2007 21:07:33 +0000

[…] Yes. The same organization and the same scientist that predicted a strong solar cycle 24 according to a prediction based on changes in the Earth’s magnetic field, predicts a weak solar cycle 25 based on observations of the Sun (for a change) May 10, 2006: The Sun’s Great Conveyor Belt has slowed to a record-low crawl, according to research by NASA solar physicist David Hathaway. “It’s off the bottom of the charts,” he says. “This has important repercussions for future solar activity.” […]