I just find myself wondering as to why a single, very small polarity reversed spot in 2008 is the start of SC24 when a similar spot in 2006 is not.

Or perhaps neither of them are.

I wonder if the solar cycle really has begun.

I also wonder since we appear to have a very strong La Nina in the Pacific, a flipping over to the cold version of the PDO, and a prolonged solar minimum, whether we should be worried about global cooling.

In the document linked in my comment #2 I answered some of your questions.

The July 2006 group was not numbered by NOAA. It was also at only -13°, which is still really in the “confusion” zone whether the group is really a SC24-group, or just a group from the northern hemisphere that has wandered too far south.

The minimum of a cycle is very clearly determined as the minimum of the 13-month smoothed average of the sunspotnumber (SIDC-formula). As long as this value is not reached, the cycle has not begun. The appearance of the first sunspotgroup with the new magnetic polarity is just the first sign that the cycle is about to begin.

You may find some info and charts on spotless days at my website http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Spotless/Spotless.html . My feeling is there are still many spotless days ahead.

Kind regards,

Ironically, the consensus for group minimum is March 2008, which is 19 months into SC24 if you count the July sunspot. This is within the range of 12 to 20 months from first sunspot of new cycle to cycle minimum.

If there is no consistent and clear way to determine the beginning of a new SC, then the scientists ought to invent a new method, such as discarding the first x number of sunspot groups with reversed polarity. This is similar to what Leif suggested (at climate audit) for reducing noise in the charts for the evolution of spotless days after cycle maximum. It sounds reasonable to me.

I guess that I don’t see how you can just discard data if it doesn’t happen to fit the prevailing model. We’re not talking tree rings here.

Was that July sunspot really given an official number?

The late start of 24 is going to answer a lot of questions in regard to solar prediction theories but then it may raise other questions. As to the AGW folks, well, if the cycle doesn’t start to June and it’s a cooler than normal summer you may have people questioning that theory as well but we all know correlation is not causation.

Kind regards,