Mike

I used the NASA SOHO archives to download and examined the high resolution (1024×1024) Continuum and Mannetogram images for the first SC24 sunspot #981 which was first observed on 2008/01/04 and persisted for three days. Here are the results.

Blink Comparator of images used in NASA Press release 2008-01-04 14:24 & 14:28
http://img168.imageshack.us/img168/3149/su…01041424ab6.gif

Blink Comparator of best images from 2008-01-05 06:24 & 06:26
http://img409.imageshack.us/img409/1548/su…01050624or8.gif

In the image from 2008-01-05 there are three clearly desirable sunspots and three to four smaller sunspots.

Note this little gem in the NASA press release,

Solar Cycle 24 Begins
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/10…olarcycle24.htm
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/im…e24/newspot.jpg

“Sunspot 981 was small–only about as wide as Earth, which counts as small on the grand scale of the sun–and it has already faded away. But its three day appearance on Jan. 4-6 was enough to convince most solar physicists that Solar Cycle 24 is underway.”

If Sunspot #981 was “small” how should NASA characterize Sunspot #990? Let’s look at Sunspot #990.

In the following Blink Comparator analysis one sunspot was clearly visible. There is approximately a one hour difference in time between the two images which is why there is a small displacement.

Blink Comparator for Sunspot #990 2008-04-13 21:26 & 22:24
http://img257.imageshack.us/img257/3599/su…agblink2tq3.gif

Load the following animation to see the event which occurred on 2008-04-14 between 16:05 and 16:15 where a second sunspot was attempting to form. I suspect that this was the event which earned Sunspot #990 a 12. Shortly after this Sunspot #990 disappeared from the 1024×1024 Continuum images.

Blink Comparator for Sunspot #990 2008-04-14 between 16:05 & 16:15
http://img91.imageshack.us/img91/4360/suns…magblinkpg6.gif

Clearly compared to Sunspot #981, Sunspot #990 is pathetic. It lasted a little longer than a day and the second spot may have been wishful thinking. Based on two data points Solar Cycle 24 is moving in the wrong direction. At this rate we will be lucky the reach solar minimum be the end of 2008, if then.

Solar Cycle 23 sunspots continue to dominate. A SC23 Sunspot #991 emerged two days ago and then faded after 24 hours; the solar disk is again blank. If anything SC23 and SC24 activity continues to decrease in strength.

I have additional posts over at http://www.solarcycle24.com/ on Sunspot #991.

Mike

Note:
To view using IE press the “F11″ key to toggle between full screen and the normal IE display. To stop the animation, press the “Esc” key. To restart the animation press “F5″. The solar image is best viewed in full size, if using IE pass the pointer over the image and click if a magnifying glass is displayed with a “plus” sign in the center. The blink speeds are one frame per second for all animations referenced here. Date/time stamps are in the lower left corner.

The later the cycle starts in earnest, the earlier and higher the peak! Amazing the things you can learn by working at NASA!