Comments on: Ken Tapping: The Current Solar Minimum

By: Ken Tapping: One year on into the minimum » Blog Post » Solar Science

Ken Tapping: One year on into the minimum » Blog Post » Solar Science — Thu, 07 May 2009 20:55:18 +0000

[...] Comments Il dato “SSN” per la valutazione del minimo solare « New ice age on Ken Tapping: The Current Solar MinimumKozak on Hathaway announces the bleeding obviousMock Tudor on Hathaway announces the bleeding [...]

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By: Il dato “SSN” per la valutazione del minimo solare « New ice age

Sat, 11 Apr 2009 05:30:41 +0000

[...] citando le parole del Prof. Ken Tapping il quale in data 17-Marzo-2008 sul sito “http://solarscience.auditblogs.com/2008/04/22/ken-tapping-the-current-solar-minimum/” ha detto: Al momento è INGIUSTIFICATO AFFERMARE che nel Sole è in corso un cambiamento [...]

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By: David Thomson

David Thomson — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 00:30:30 +0000

I’m glad to read the comments to this article. To sum up my addition to the above views, it isn’t a matter of how long the solar cycle is, but how strong it is. We are already experiencing solar cycle 24, but it is turning out to be extremely weak in irradiance. The Dalton Minimum still had sunspots, but significantly fewer than other cycles.

In light of the fact that we ARE in cycle 24, the Sun IS undergoing a significant change in behavior as seen in the lower sunspot count.

Just from a visual inspection of daily ocean temperature charts, it appears ocean temperatures are already cooling this year. The thermal momentum of the poles is already declining. News outlets made a big deal out of this year being the second greatest thawing extent of the Arctic Ocean. Yet, being second means the thawing peaked last year and colder seasons are already beginning to return. Apparently, the Maunder and Dalton Minimum’s were gradual cooling events, too. The coldest years came well after the solar activity subsided.

It can’t hurt to develop the habit of storing more food and medicine than we normally do, and rotating the stock.

By: John A. Jauregui

John A. Jauregui — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 04:52:08 +0000

I just returned from visiting Yellowstone and was struck by the devastation of the 1988 fires, which were preceeded by acute drought and record setting dry lightening. I began to wonder what solar activity occured leading up the 1988 fire storms. Solar cycle 22 started just a couple of years before that summer of drought and dry lightening. Check this out. Relative to other cycles, that solar cycle had 1) a very fast rise time – 2.8 years, 2) a very short cycle length – 9.7 years, 3) a high minimum sun spot number – 12.3, and 4) a high maximum sun spot number – 158.5
more:
“Cycle 22 certainly provided us with many highlights. Early in the cycle the smoothed sunspot number (determined by the number of sunspots visible on the sun and used as the traditional measure of the cycle) climbed rapidly; in fact more rapidly than for any previously recorded cycle. This caused many to predict that it would eclipse Cycle 19 (peak sunspot number of 201) as the highest cycle on record. This was not to be as the sunspot number ceased climbing in early 1989 and reached a maximum in July of that year. Whilst not of record amplitude, Cycle 22 still rated as 4th of the recorded cycles and continued the run of recent large solar cycles (Cycles 18, 19 and 21 were all exceptional!). A very notable feature of Cycle 22 was that it had the shortest rise from minimum to maximum of any recorded cycle.”
Material Prepared by Richard Thompson. © Copyright IPS – Radio and Space Services.

By: JonnyH

JonnyH — Wed, 09 Jul 2008 10:54:02 +0000

Mark, we are currently at or about the solar minimum. Unfortunately it is less likely that you will see a good solar lights display in September, they should be better in 3-4 years at the next maximum.

By: CommanderBill

CommanderBill — Sat, 28 Jun 2008 04:35:32 +0000

If Sun Spot Cycle continues to be a nonstarter I recommend the period be called “The Al Gore minimum”. Hopefully he can read about it through prison bars.

By: John A

John A — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 02:12:50 +0000

According to the late John Daly, the Franz Josef glacier recently expanded since the late 1960s. I must dig out the reference for that.

By: David

David — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 01:41:10 +0000

During a recent visit to NZ I noted the dramatic retreats of the Frans Joseph and Fox glaciers since around 1750 to present positions. CAGW due to greenhouse gases does not reconcile too well with the melt and deposition rates. Perhaps CAGW advocates might explain why this is so.
Solar driven climate change data does appear to provide some answers. The inevitable unfolding of cycle 23/24 transition will hopefully provide more answers……and maybe some scientifically based truths into the debate.

By: William

William — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 12:24:46 +0000

There does appear to be evidence for a solar cycle interruption. (See comments below.)

Based on recent research (Tinsley, Yu, Palle, Svensmark, Shaviv, and so on.) a solar magnetic cycle interruption will result in long term higher GCR (Galactic Cosmic Rays) levels. The research I have seen shows that the increased ions produced by higher levels of GCR, will increase the amount of clouds over the oceans (atmosphere above the ocean is ion poor as compared to the atmosphere above the continents, as the continental rock is slightly radioactive.) More clouds colder planet, less clouds warmer planet.

Comments:
There were three recently published papers that predicted a solar magnetic cycle change to a Dalton or Maunder like minimum, for cycle 24: one analyzed past solar barycentre motion which correlates with deep solar magnetic cycle minimums, a second based on an analysis of the paleo cosmogenic isotopes (again that correlate with deep solar cycle minimums), and a third based on a physical model.

The following is the 2004 paper that predicts the sun is heading towards a Maunder minimum based on an analysis of the paleo record of solar activity.

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004ApJ…605L..81B

This is the 2003 paper that predicts a solar cycle minimum based on a physical model.

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003SPD….34.0603S

This is the 1987 Solar barycentre motion paper: Prolonged minima and the 179-yr cycle of the solar inertial motion by R.Fairbridge and J. Shirley

http://www.springerlink.com/content/w57236105034h657/

The solar barycentre motion theory hypothesizes that specific motions of the sun about its barycentre, interrupts the formation of the magnetic ropes at the solar tacholine (Tacholine is the interface to solar radiative zone and convection zone.) With the barycentre hypothesis a Maunder minimum is an interruption to the solar magnetic cycle as opposed to a slow down.)

By: William Astley

William Astley — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 05:00:44 +0000

There were three recently published papers that predicted a solar magnetic cycle change to a Dalton or Maunder like minimum, for cycle 24: one analyzed past solar barycentre motion which correlates with deep solar magnetic cycle minimums, a second based on an analysis of the paleo cosmogenic isotopes (again that correlate with deep solar cycle minimums), and a third based on a physical model.

The following is the 2004 paper that predicts the sun is heading towards a Maunder minimum based on an analysis of the paleo record of solar activity.

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004ApJ…605L..81B

This is the 2003 paper that predicts a solar cycle minimum based on a physical model.

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003SPD….34.0603S

This is the 1987 Solar barycentre motion paper: Prolonged minima and the 179-yr cycle of the solar inertial motion by R.Fairbridge and J. Shirley

http://www.springerlink.com/content/w57236105034h657/

There is data and analysis that supports the assertion that there is an increase in planetary cloud cover over the oceans when there is an galactic cosmic rays. GCR increases when there is a reduction the heliosphere which occurs when the solar magnetic cycle slows down or is interrupted. There is evidence in the paleoclimatic data (abrupt cycle cooling) that correlates with the long term solar magnetic cycle changes (determined by measuring variance in cosmogenic isotopes.)

Svensmark is only one of an number of researchers make that assertion the ice epoch and the glacial/interglacial cycle is triggered by the solar cycle changes.