Comments on: Ken Tapping: The Current Solar Minimum http://solarscience.auditblogs.com/2008/04/22/ken-tapping-the-current-solar-minimum/ A blog of solar physics Thu, 21 Aug 2008 17:31:40 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.3.1 By: JonnyH http://solarscience.auditblogs.com/2008/04/22/ken-tapping-the-current-solar-minimum/#comment-2683 JonnyH Wed, 09 Jul 2008 10:54:02 +0000 http://solarscience.auditblogs.com/2008/04/22/ken-tapping-the-current-solar-minimum/#comment-2683 Mark, we are currently at or about the solar minimum. Unfortunately it is less likely that you will see a good solar lights display in September, they should be better in 3-4 years at the next maximum. Mark, we are currently at or about the solar minimum. Unfortunately it is less likely that you will see a good solar lights display in September, they should be better in 3-4 years at the next maximum.

]]> By: CommanderBill http://solarscience.auditblogs.com/2008/04/22/ken-tapping-the-current-solar-minimum/#comment-2574 CommanderBill Sat, 28 Jun 2008 04:35:32 +0000 http://solarscience.auditblogs.com/2008/04/22/ken-tapping-the-current-solar-minimum/#comment-2574 If Sun Spot Cycle continues to be a nonstarter I recommend the period be called "The Al Gore minimum". Hopefully he can read about it through prison bars. If Sun Spot Cycle continues to be a nonstarter I recommend the period be called “The Al Gore minimum”. Hopefully he can read about it through prison bars.

]]> By: John A http://solarscience.auditblogs.com/2008/04/22/ken-tapping-the-current-solar-minimum/#comment-2415 John A Thu, 12 Jun 2008 02:12:50 +0000 http://solarscience.auditblogs.com/2008/04/22/ken-tapping-the-current-solar-minimum/#comment-2415 According to the late John Daly, the Franz Josef glacier recently expanded since the late 1960s. I must dig out the reference for that. According to the late John Daly, the Franz Josef glacier recently expanded since the late 1960s. I must dig out the reference for that.

]]> By: David http://solarscience.auditblogs.com/2008/04/22/ken-tapping-the-current-solar-minimum/#comment-2409 David Wed, 11 Jun 2008 01:41:10 +0000 http://solarscience.auditblogs.com/2008/04/22/ken-tapping-the-current-solar-minimum/#comment-2409 During a recent visit to NZ I noted the dramatic retreats of the Frans Joseph and Fox glaciers since around 1750 to present positions. CAGW due to greenhouse gases does not reconcile too well with the melt and deposition rates. Perhaps CAGW advocates might explain why this is so. Solar driven climate change data does appear to provide some answers. The inevitable unfolding of cycle 23/24 transition will hopefully provide more answers......and maybe some scientifically based truths into the debate. During a recent visit to NZ I noted the dramatic retreats of the Frans Joseph and Fox glaciers since around 1750 to present positions. CAGW due to greenhouse gases does not reconcile too well with the melt and deposition rates. Perhaps CAGW advocates might explain why this is so.
Solar driven climate change data does appear to provide some answers. The inevitable unfolding of cycle 23/24 transition will hopefully provide more answers……and maybe some scientifically based truths into the debate.

]]> By: William http://solarscience.auditblogs.com/2008/04/22/ken-tapping-the-current-solar-minimum/#comment-2345 William Fri, 06 Jun 2008 12:24:46 +0000 http://solarscience.auditblogs.com/2008/04/22/ken-tapping-the-current-solar-minimum/#comment-2345 There does appear to be evidence for a solar cycle interruption. (See comments below.) Based on recent research (Tinsley, Yu, Palle, Svensmark, Shaviv, and so on.) a solar magnetic cycle interruption will result in long term higher GCR (Galactic Cosmic Rays) levels. The research I have seen shows that the increased ions produced by higher levels of GCR, will increase the amount of clouds over the oceans (atmosphere above the ocean is ion poor as compared to the atmosphere above the continents, as the continental rock is slightly radioactive.) More clouds colder planet, less clouds warmer planet. Comments: There were three recently published papers that predicted a solar magnetic cycle change to a Dalton or Maunder like minimum, for cycle 24: one analyzed past solar barycentre motion which correlates with deep solar magnetic cycle minimums, a second based on an analysis of the paleo cosmogenic isotopes (again that correlate with deep solar cycle minimums), and a third based on a physical model. The following is the 2004 paper that predicts the sun is heading towards a Maunder minimum based on an analysis of the paleo record of solar activity. http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004ApJ...605L..81B This is the 2003 paper that predicts a solar cycle minimum based on a physical model. http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003SPD....34.0603S This is the 1987 Solar barycentre motion paper: Prolonged minima and the 179-yr cycle of the solar inertial motion by R.Fairbridge and J. Shirley http://www.springerlink.com/content/w57236105034h657/ The solar barycentre motion theory hypothesizes that specific motions of the sun about its barycentre, interrupts the formation of the magnetic ropes at the solar tacholine (Tacholine is the interface to solar radiative zone and convection zone.) With the barycentre hypothesis a Maunder minimum is an interruption to the solar magnetic cycle as opposed to a slow down.) There does appear to be evidence for a solar cycle interruption. (See comments below.)

Based on recent research (Tinsley, Yu, Palle, Svensmark, Shaviv, and so on.) a solar magnetic cycle interruption will result in long term higher GCR (Galactic Cosmic Rays) levels. The research I have seen shows that the increased ions produced by higher levels of GCR, will increase the amount of clouds over the oceans (atmosphere above the ocean is ion poor as compared to the atmosphere above the continents, as the continental rock is slightly radioactive.) More clouds colder planet, less clouds warmer planet.

Comments:
There were three recently published papers that predicted a solar magnetic cycle change to a Dalton or Maunder like minimum, for cycle 24: one analyzed past solar barycentre motion which correlates with deep solar magnetic cycle minimums, a second based on an analysis of the paleo cosmogenic isotopes (again that correlate with deep solar cycle minimums), and a third based on a physical model.

The following is the 2004 paper that predicts the sun is heading towards a Maunder minimum based on an analysis of the paleo record of solar activity.

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004ApJ…605L..81B

This is the 2003 paper that predicts a solar cycle minimum based on a physical model.

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003SPD….34.0603S

This is the 1987 Solar barycentre motion paper: Prolonged minima and the 179-yr cycle of the solar inertial motion by R.Fairbridge and J. Shirley

http://www.springerlink.com/content/w57236105034h657/

The solar barycentre motion theory hypothesizes that specific motions of the sun about its barycentre, interrupts the formation of the magnetic ropes at the solar tacholine (Tacholine is the interface to solar radiative zone and convection zone.) With the barycentre hypothesis a Maunder minimum is an interruption to the solar magnetic cycle as opposed to a slow down.)

]]> By: William Astley http://solarscience.auditblogs.com/2008/04/22/ken-tapping-the-current-solar-minimum/#comment-2342 William Astley Fri, 06 Jun 2008 05:00:44 +0000 http://solarscience.auditblogs.com/2008/04/22/ken-tapping-the-current-solar-minimum/#comment-2342 There were three recently published papers that predicted a solar magnetic cycle change to a Dalton or Maunder like minimum, for cycle 24: one analyzed past solar barycentre motion which correlates with deep solar magnetic cycle minimums, a second based on an analysis of the paleo cosmogenic isotopes (again that correlate with deep solar cycle minimums), and a third based on a physical model. The following is the 2004 paper that predicts the sun is heading towards a Maunder minimum based on an analysis of the paleo record of solar activity. http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004ApJ...605L..81B This is the 2003 paper that predicts a solar cycle minimum based on a physical model. http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003SPD....34.0603S This is the 1987 Solar barycentre motion paper: Prolonged minima and the 179-yr cycle of the solar inertial motion by R.Fairbridge and J. Shirley http://www.springerlink.com/content/w57236105034h657/ The solar barycentre motion theory hypothesizes that specific motions of the sun about its barycentre, interrupts the formation of the magnetic ropes at the solar tacholine (Tacholine is the interface to solar radiative zone and convection zone.) With the barycentre hypothesis a Maunder minimum is an interruption to the solar magnetic cycle as opposed to a slow down. There is data and analysis that supports the assertion that there is an increase in planetary cloud cover over the oceans when there is an galactic cosmic rays. GCR increases when there is a reduction the heliosphere which occurs when the solar magnetic cycle slows down or is interrupted. There is evidence in the paleoclimatic data (abrupt cycle cooling) that correlates with the long term solar magnetic cycle changes (determined by measuring variance in cosmogenic isotopes.) Svensmark is only one of an number of researchers make that assertion the ice epoch and the glacial/interglacial cycle is triggered by the solar cycle changes. There were three recently published papers that predicted a solar magnetic cycle change to a Dalton or Maunder like minimum, for cycle 24: one analyzed past solar barycentre motion which correlates with deep solar magnetic cycle minimums, a second based on an analysis of the paleo cosmogenic isotopes (again that correlate with deep solar cycle minimums), and a third based on a physical model.

The following is the 2004 paper that predicts the sun is heading towards a Maunder minimum based on an analysis of the paleo record of solar activity.

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004ApJ…605L..81B

This is the 2003 paper that predicts a solar cycle minimum based on a physical model.

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003SPD….34.0603S

This is the 1987 Solar barycentre motion paper: Prolonged minima and the 179-yr cycle of the solar inertial motion by R.Fairbridge and J. Shirley

http://www.springerlink.com/content/w57236105034h657/

The solar barycentre motion theory hypothesizes that specific motions of the sun about its barycentre, interrupts the formation of the magnetic ropes at the solar tacholine (Tacholine is the interface to solar radiative zone and convection zone.) With the barycentre hypothesis a Maunder minimum is an interruption to the solar magnetic cycle as opposed to a slow down.

There is data and analysis that supports the assertion that there is an increase in planetary cloud cover over the oceans when there is an galactic cosmic rays. GCR increases when there is a reduction the heliosphere which occurs when the solar magnetic cycle slows down or is interrupted. There is evidence in the paleoclimatic data (abrupt cycle cooling) that correlates with the long term solar magnetic cycle changes (determined by measuring variance in cosmogenic isotopes.)

Svensmark is only one of an number of researchers make that assertion the ice epoch and the glacial/interglacial cycle is triggered by the solar cycle changes.

]]> By: Mark http://solarscience.auditblogs.com/2008/04/22/ken-tapping-the-current-solar-minimum/#comment-2209 Mark Wed, 28 May 2008 00:00:16 +0000 http://solarscience.auditblogs.com/2008/04/22/ken-tapping-the-current-solar-minimum/#comment-2209 A question… Looking to go to Alaska in September to see Northern Lights. Will Sun spot activity be good this year? Thanks for any advice. A question…

Looking to go to Alaska in September to see Northern Lights. Will Sun spot activity be good this year?

Thanks for any advice.

]]> By: John A. Jauregui http://solarscience.auditblogs.com/2008/04/22/ken-tapping-the-current-solar-minimum/#comment-1854 John A. Jauregui Fri, 02 May 2008 07:21:42 +0000 http://solarscience.auditblogs.com/2008/04/22/ken-tapping-the-current-solar-minimum/#comment-1854 To put the whole Climate Change issue into perspective vis-a-vis the Peak Oil Crisis, everyone needs to ask themselves, their associates, all sitting elected officials and those seeking office, especially the office of President of the United States, "What is more threatening in both the long and short terms, a beneficial 1 degree F rise in average world temperatures over the past 100 years, or a 1 percent decline in world oil production over the last 100 weeks - with steepening declines forecast? Furthermore, can our economy better deal with declining fuel inventories in an environment of persistent warming, or in an environment of declining average temperatures over the next several decades, the most likely scenario given the highly reliable solar inertial motion (SIM) model forecasts of climate change?” Solar cycle # 24 will tell the tale. The problem is not AGW. The real problem is the end of cyclical warming coincident with the onset of Peak Oil. Everyone will make their Kyoto target, whether they plan to or not. To put the whole Climate Change issue into perspective vis-a-vis the Peak Oil Crisis, everyone needs to ask themselves, their associates, all sitting elected officials and those seeking office, especially the office of President of the United States, “What is more threatening in both the long and short terms, a beneficial 1 degree F rise in average world temperatures over the past 100 years, or a 1 percent decline in world oil production over the last 100 weeks - with steepening declines forecast? Furthermore, can our economy better deal with declining fuel inventories in an environment of persistent warming, or in an environment of declining average temperatures over the next several decades, the most likely scenario given the highly reliable solar inertial motion (SIM) model forecasts of climate change?” Solar cycle # 24 will tell the tale. The problem is not AGW. The real problem is the end of cyclical warming coincident with the onset of Peak Oil. Everyone will make their Kyoto target, whether they plan to or not.

]]> By: Dee Norris http://solarscience.auditblogs.com/2008/04/22/ken-tapping-the-current-solar-minimum/#comment-1706 Dee Norris Sat, 26 Apr 2008 12:07:54 +0000 http://solarscience.auditblogs.com/2008/04/22/ken-tapping-the-current-solar-minimum/#comment-1706 @30 Pierre I am more concerned about going back to the climate of the good ol days of the 17th century. The combined effects of peak oil and food shortages would unleash some ugly confrontations. @30 Pierre

I am more concerned about going back to the climate of the good ol days of the 17th century.

The combined effects of peak oil and food shortages would unleash some ugly confrontations.

]]> By: Pierre Gosselin http://solarscience.auditblogs.com/2008/04/22/ken-tapping-the-current-solar-minimum/#comment-1704 Pierre Gosselin Sat, 26 Apr 2008 11:22:55 +0000 http://solarscience.auditblogs.com/2008/04/22/ken-tapping-the-current-solar-minimum/#comment-1704 @Papertiger Why should you despair at the notion we may be getting cooler. Haven't you heard? We're headed right now for a CO2 induced global warming catstrophe. Cooling will only mean going back to the climate of the good ol days of the 19th century. Cheer up! @Papertiger
Why should you despair at the notion we may be getting cooler. Haven’t you heard? We’re headed right now for a CO2 induced global warming catstrophe. Cooling will only mean going back to the climate of the good ol days of the 19th century. Cheer up!

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