http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/11jul_solarcycleupdate.htm

My favorite line: “The sun is now near the low point of its 11-year activity cycle,” says Hathaway.

I love how the 11 year mark passed by in May ‘07, making May ‘08 the start of year 12, but that’s not mentioned in the statement. Nor is the fact that we’re now in our 55th month since the first spotless day of SC23. Mr. Hathaway can jump, shout, and try to distract us from the fact that SC24 is taking its own sweet time, but when he says things like this all it does is make him look silly. I expect better.

Hathaway’s cycle 24 prediction used the Geomagnetic peak 9 months following the cycle 23 sunspot max to predict the subsequent SS max. Thank you for participating, Dave.

“some say it will be small, others say it will be another doozy. Predictions have ranged anywhere from 75 to 150 maximum spots during its peak”

I would say <50 would be small. He is obviously talking in the echo chamber of professional comity. The lateness, and thereafter, slowness, cannot be otherwise interpreted than to doom predictions above 90, even Svalgaard’s 75(+/-8), seems in jeopardy.

“the [variablility in the] sun’s contribution is small compared to volcanoes, El Nino and greenhouse gases”

The edit is John’s understanding and I would agree must be credited to Dave. Still, apart from self-promotion, just how did Dave get his job? His grasp seems awfully feeble.

Interesting comment coming from a person who is supposed to not back himself in the corner by drawing lines in the sand. He is also engaging in a logical fallacy, claiming you don’t understand something and then discounting it’s possible effect like claiming a tree falling in the forest doesn’t make a sound because no human was around to hear it.

Dr. Hathaway admits he doesn’t know what influences sunspot numbers (which is his specialty) and then yet claims the sun isn’t the cause of natural climate variation? Illogical! We simply don’t know all the ways in which energy is transferred to the earth, TSI (combination of UV, IR, Visible light, Microwave and Xray) is just one of those means, we don’t know the degree of magnetic induction occurs between the earth and the sun. We don’t know how much cosmic rays affect the atmosphere. The fact is, we don’t know how much we really don’t know. No one can realistically make the statement Dr. Hathaway made, his was an article of faith in the pronouncements of the IPCC. He needs to stick to solar science (which he still doesn’t understand) and not reflexively extend professional courtesy to another field’s theory that maybe affected by his own without fully knowing the implications.

Even A VEI 6 explosion wouldn’t cause much more than a temporary dip in the “climate trend”.

I think its appropriate to encourage scientists to make falsifiable statements so that, at the very least, we may know when they are right or wrong.

With people like Gavin Schmidt, pinning them down to ANY falsifiable prediction is like nailing jello to the ceiling.

At least Hathaway has the guts to say what he thinks in a way that cannot be disputed. My onlu hope is that we don’t have a disproof by way of a global cooling down, even on the scale of the Dalton Minimum.

always good to proofread before hitting “submit”.

And what’s with the data adjustment on the right margin?

Additional thought: What we don’t need is VEI 6 (or more) volcano (Laki) to ruin the experiment.

…hats off

…lack of
…global temps

Since the Dalton Cold Spell was not caused by industry or the sun (Hathaway), I researched volcanos. Laki in Iceland erupted from 1783-85 and, according to Wiki, played hell with Europe. As far as El Nino at that time, I didn’t get much info as the Wiki ref. wan’t money for the paper.

But yeah, it’s a little surprising that Hathaway stuck his neck out (and hats off to him being a scientist instead of a …. ).

If the sun stays quiet, we shall see if CO2 (MM or not), overwhelms the lack of solar activity. So far it’s not looking all that swell for Dr. H. , as the global temps aren’t cooperating.

I hope Hansen, Gore, and all the watermellons get on this bus.